Aina väärässä

Pörssikurssien nousu on jatkunut jo usean viikon ajan. Mitä juuri nyt kannattaa tehdä? Onko seuraavaksi tiedossa nousua vai laskua?

Pahimpien pelkotilojen väistyttyä on osakemarkkinoilla saatu nauttia nousevista kursseista. Markkinahintojen kehitys on kaikille sama (Nokian osakkeelle on kunakin hetkenä vain yksi hinta), mutta kurssinousun nautinnosta pääsee osalliseksi vain omistamalla osakkeita.

Omassa salkussani on tapahtunut vain vähän muutoksia. Hyödynsin aikaisemmin kesällä tarjoutuneita ostotilaisuuksia, mutta sen jälkeen ei ole ollut tarvetta suuriin muutoksiin.

Vähäinen reagointi tulee jossain vaiheessa johtamaan siihen, että salkun sisältö näyttää väärältä. Jos kurssinousu jatkuu, niin salkussani on liikaa käteistä. Jos koemme voimakkaita kurssilaskuja, niin osakkeita on liikaa. Tämä on oman strategiani lyhyen aikavälin heikkous, mutta en tunne strategiaa, jolla voisin odottaa parempaa pitkän aikavälin tuottoa. Ja siksi pitäydyn tässä strategiassa.

It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings – and for some investors, it is. After all, if a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his – and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state – how in the world could I be other than benefited by his erratic behavior? If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming.

Owners of stocks, however, too often let the capricious and often irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well. Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits – and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments.

Those people who can sit quietly for decades when they own a farm or apartment house too often become frenetic when they are exposed to a stream of stock quotations and accompanying commentators delivering an implied message of “Don’t just sit there, do something.” For these investors, liquidity is transformed from the unqualified benefit it should be to a curse.

A “flash crash” or some other extreme market fluctuation can’t hurt an investor any more than an erratic and mouthy neighbor can hurt my farm investment. Indeed, tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values. A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.

During the extraordinary financial panic that occurred late in 2008, I never gave a thought to selling my farm or New York real estate, even though a severe recession was clearly brewing. And, if I had owned 100% of a solid business with good long-term prospects, it would have been foolish for me to even consider dumping it. So why would I have sold my stocks that were small participations in wonderful businesses? True, any one of them might eventually disappoint, but as a group they were certain to do well. Could anyone really believe the earth was going to swallow up the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America?

Warren Buffett, 2014

Lyhyellä aikavälillä oma salkkuni on siis varmasti epäoptimaalisessa asennossa, mutta pitkällä aikavälillä se todennäköisesti vie minut asettamaani tavoitteeseen (hyvään tuottoon ilman suurta tappioriskiä).

Minne sinä olet matkalla?

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